Award Shows: The Who Will Win Oscar Night Edition 2012

She Said: Oscar Night Guesses

Oscar Night has been a big deal for me since I was a little girl. The first time I saw them was when my mother taped it and let me see the performance for Best Song from The Little Mermaid. I was hooked and every year after I would watch more and more and my ability to guess likely winners grew. I have no magic, no special power; I just want to state that plainly. I just try to look at things logically and look at voting trends of the current and past seasons. I’m not always right but most years I get a fair amount of winners. Well, there was 1997 when I got all the major awards right except for Lauren Bacall losing to Juliette Binoche but everyone got that wrong! I’m hoping to beat my old record this year and get more picks correct! I even got Director and both Screenplays and a bunch of the technical awards, too! Okay, I need to focus on this year.

Here are my Picks for who I think will win in what I consider to be the big 5 categories (I know it’s performance heavy but what do you expect, I’m an actor.)

Best Picture

This is so hard now that there are so many nominees. I’m just going with my heart for The Help for my pick. I really did love The Help in face what I didn’t like about it were the ways in which it was different from the book. I thought the book was wonderful and really some of the decisions that they made with it cheapened some of the characters (especially Celia) and some of the moments (I won’t spoil the book or the movie by saying which ones). But, it was a beautiful, warm, moving and funny movie that I enjoy watching still (even if they did cut out too much perspective by limiting the other maids’ stories- okay, I’ll stop.) There are so many pictures that could win The Descendants has gotten great reviews and Midnight in Paris is Woody Allen’s latest success. I think the movie that could pull an upset of The Help winning is The Artist. Everyone loves it and it’s so different, The Artist has pulled of a very hard thing to do in cinema in that it is both new and fresh and feel classic at all once.

Hope: The Help

Guess: The Artist

Actor in a Leading Role

Best Actor isn’t that hard of a category for me because I think I don’t bond with the male characters in the same way that I do with the female characters.  I really think that Jean Dujardin will win for The Artist. I don’t think Brad Pitt will win for Moneyball, but I think that George Clooney might be the one to pull an upset for The Artist in this category. While George Clooney did win an Oscar (supporting for Syriana) a few years ago he has produced a substantial body of work in his career. And more importantly he was another big movie this past year (The Ides of March). Sometimes it seems that a person who has produced several strong performances in a year can take home the prize!

Guess: Jean Dujardin for The Artist

Likely Upset: George Clooney for The Descendants

Actor in a Supporting Role

It’s Christopher Plummer! It is! It has to be! Uh, oh, wait am I setting myself up like 1997 again? Am I thinking that someone who has an amazing body of work, who is loved by the industry and just turned in a good performance, will win? This is Lauren Bacall all over again!!! Okay, I guess in keeping with who I think has the closest shot to upset Christopher Plummer’s much-deserved Oscar- Kenneth Branagh for My Week With Marilyn. I don’t like Branagh, I haven’t cared very much for what I have seen of his performance but I think he’s my biggest concern. I liked Jonah Hill in Moneyball but I don’t think it’s a winning performance.

Guess: Christopher Plummer for The Beginners

Hope: Christopher Plummer for The Beginners

Most Likely Upset: Kenneth Branagh for My Week With Marilyn

Actress in a Leading Role

This is always such a hard category for me. Because I’m an actress there are so many things that make it my favorite and least favorite category at once. I get attached to roles I love or that inspire me. But I also get really brought down by Oscar logic (you know, the clues that say if a person is based on a real life person, transforms in a large way physically to play the part or if their character dies that it’s a good indicator of a win. I hate it but it’s pretty accurate) I really hope that Viola Davis wins. She was amazing. I had an Aibileen in my mind for all the months that I had read The Help and while her take is different it’s better! I rarely say that because I like usually like the book version of a work rather than the movie. But she was amazing, name almost any emotion and she showed it! I don’t think that Meryl Streep will win for Iron Lady, although another nomination was hardly surprising. I don’t think that today with so much discussion of Reagan era politics and it’s after effects and the financial crisis in this country and Britain that someone playing Margaret Thatcher will win. I do not have the same confidence about Michelle Williams though. Her performance of Marilyn Monroe in My Week With Marilyn has been highly praised and her performance checks out with several Oscar math indicators. It’s difficult to play someone who is such a film legend and while she may represent Marilyn and do great work in some scenes, I’m still pulling for Viola Davis. Michelle just can be Marilyn for me but Viola is Aibileen.

Hope: Viola Davis for The Help

Guess: Viola Davis for The Help

Likely Upset: Michelle Williams for My Week With Marilyn

Actress in a Supporting Role

This wasn’t a very hard category for me. I feel pretty confident that my hope and my guess are the same. I think it will be Octavia Spencer for The Help. She was awesome. I really liked the movie but like I said they changed so much it’s like a new work. However, I can still see what I think of as Minny and more in her performance, it was lovely and multidimensional. Octavia Spencer has won at other awards shows this season (including the Golden Globes and the Screen Actor’s Guild Awards). I like Jessica Chastain but Celia was flattened as a character in the movie adaptation. The only upset I could see in this category is Melissa McCarthy for Bridesmaids. Comedies don’t usually fare that well but this was a very successful movie and one that kept the film industry talking so she just might pull an upset and win Oscar gold.

Hope: Octavia Spencer for The Help

Guess: Octavia Spencer for The Help

Likely Upset: Melissa McCarthy for Bridesmaids

We’ll let you know how well we did picking!! I’m hoping to beat my 1997 score!!! I’m ready to curl up and watch those beautiful dresses and see all the stars!

He Said: Oscar Predictions

I’m so excited about the Oscars this year.  The Oscars are like the Superbowl in our house, and this year is really looking to be something special.  Not that I hate football, but it’s all the other stuff that goes with it that I hate, beer, offensive commercials, and cheerleaders.  I’m a football purist, but also a man who doesn’t have time for watching all of the games that go on forever, and would rather spend that time with my wife.  We enjoy watching movies together very much, so the Oscars are now my Superbowl.  We do an Oscar party every year just the two of us, and it is so much fun.  This year it’s going to be catered by Pinkberry, but more on that next week.  I’m super excited this year because there are a lot more movies this year that meet our content standards then ever.  Lately it’s been harder and harder for us to find a “team” to cheer for.  We’ve continued to predict the winners, so here’s mine for the top awards:

Actress in a Supporting Role- This one is hard for me.  We saw The Help and loved it.  I really think Octavia Spencer deserves it for her performance, but I don’t think she’s going to get it.  I think the award is going to go to Melissa McCarthy for Bridesmaids.  There’s just been too much talk about her this year.  If it were Actress in a Leading Role, I don’t think she’d be able to win with a comedy performance, but if memory serves me correctly comedies have done much better in this category.

Actor in a Supporting Role- Christopher Plummer in Beginners.  This is a lock.  He’s had such a long prolific career and never once won an Oscar.  This is Captain Von Trapp people!  He’s also playing a man who dies (I promise I didn’t just spoil anything) which gives him something that the Academy loves to see in an award winning role.  In addition, he’s also already won a bunch of awards for this part, including the Golden Globes, and Screen Actor’s Guild Award, both of which are considered bellwethers.  I feel really sorry for Jonah Hill, because I loved him in Moneyball, as I just wrote about.  I hope he continues to show this caliber of work, because he doesn’t stand a chance this year.

Actress in a Leading Role- This one is just too close to call in my mind.  There’s no way it’s going to go to Rooney Mara from Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. It’s her first big role and nomination, and she’s got too much competition.  Glenn Close is dangerous due to her longevity in the industry, but there hasn’t been too much buzz that I’ve heard about her performance.  She’s wanted to make Albert Nobbs for years, but that’s the only victory I see for her associated with this piece.  Viola Davis gives the performance of her career in The Help. It could very well be her on the winner’s podium, but I don’t think so.  Frankly, I hope I missed the mark here and she does win.  I think it’s going to be either Meryl Streep in The Iron Lady or Michelle Williams in My Week With Marilyn.  Both are portraying real people, but there are other factors that give each an advantage.  Meryl Streep has been up for Oscars time and again, but didn’t win the last time she was nominated.  She’s got a lot of staying power.  This is Michelle Williams’ third nomination for an Oscar, and second in this category in recent memory, and no win yet.  There’s also the Heath Ledger halo effect.  They had a child together, so the Academy could look at rewarding her work as rewarding him again, even though he has passed.  Definitely a category to watch.

Actor in a Leading Role-This is another one that is so close in my mind.  I can’t narrow this one down to one either.  It’s going to be George Clooney for The Descendants or Jean Dujardin for The Artist.  Dujardin has been sweeping through this award season collecting any award he could.  George Clooney has established himself as a strong presence in dramas, but has yet to win an Oscar.  Both performances have been talked up as fantastic.  So I can’t be certain either way.

Best Picture- So here we are.  Best in Show.  Ultimate Grand Supreme (aren’t those titles at kiddie beauty pageants weird?)  So who’s going to get to pack the stage with people at the end of the night?  I’m not too sure about that either.  With nine nominees, it’s harder than ever to pick.  This year there aren’t any blockbusters that don’t stand a chance that are being nominated to placate the masses, so it’s hard to count too many of them out.  This is going to sound a lot like you’re rereading my Leading Actor prediction, but I’m predicting that it will be either The Descendants or The Artist.  Both sound like good movies.  The Artist is one of those movies that sounds like it shows how movies can really be unexpected.  Enjoyable and quirky.  It’s a silent film.  I include that as a disclaimer for anyone who wants to pay to see it.  The Descendants is fairly straight forward, but sounds like it has some twists to it.  Both sport pretty good performances.  Still, I hope I’m wrong.  I hope The Help wins.  It’s clearly the most deserving.  Somehow, I don’t think the Academy will embrace it.

So that’s our picks for the big awards that are being given away this weekend.  Will we be right?  We’ll talk about that next week.  Do you agree with our picks, or think we’re way off base?